Music&Data

So, according to reports all over the internet today (including the one we read here at MBW) behemoth UMG are set to be given new owners. Kinda. 50% new owners, it seems. An interesting move… 50% of the company off out the door also means 50% profits too. Not that that’s necessarily a problem – it appears there are plenty to go round.

Ultimately with streaming and catalogue growing as they are and with the dominance of UMG in the singles market it’s a no brainer that the company will float. VIVENDI have a cash cow and at some point the market will want milk. My personal prediction is that the company will IPO but not until offloading at least 20%: the opportunity is too big to miss. The question then is who may be rich enough to buy that amount of shares? Answers on a postcard but don’t be surprised if we see China or Russia step up.

But let’s scope out some possible new owners… because let’s face it – with a valuation of $40bn, there’s not that many companies that could afford that. Also, for the sake of fun here, we’re examining that only one party buys the 50% that’s on offer…. play along ffs.

APPLE

Over the next 18 months the streaming wars are really going to hot up. It’s already hot. Spotify vs. Apple and to be honest, if it’s a race to the bank… Spotify will lose. With no hardware business to prop it up and no cash reserves, as well as not being able to turn a profit yet, Apple decide to put the Spotidog out of it’s misery and buys 50% of UMG. Accordingly it then starts banking half of all the money Spotify is pouring into Universal whilst at the same time inventing Megawindowing: essentially turning Beats and Apple Music into a window display for Universal Music and not offering the other services the music for at least a year. Eventually relationships with Spotify fray so much that Universal force their content off the service and eventually without the worlds biggest music copyright holder on board, it collapses sending Sweden into a recession for the next hundred years. All non pop hip hop artists are dropped though, which then kickstarts a mega wave of Independent guitar music and the Beatles 2nd coming happens with some new band from Nottingham called Same Streets or something. As a bizarre knock on effect, due to the indie revival, rockabilly haircuts come back into fashion in a big way and Sweden once a tech powerhouse now becomes a central hub for European barbers, initially causing GDP to grow but then Elon Musk ruins it all by inventing a robot to do that. Shame.

AMAZON

It’s no secret that Amazon have been harbouring record label dreams – Amazon Orginals, anyone… but Bezos did once say ‘Workers: one day you will all work for me’ and in a sizable land grab, Jeff steps in and acquires 50% of the global workforce of the worlds biggest music company. Immediately all UMG D2C operations are shelved in favour of Amazon partner stores which angers product managers globally as it now takes 12 days and 17 angry emails to get a packshot changed. However, merch shipping prices globally drop creating a massive surge in the profitability of Bravado which then buys Urban Outfitters in order to access the high street fully. Taking on their already sizable storebase, Bravado and indeed Amazon now have access to prime retail space in all major markets and they kickstart the biggest period of vinyl sales the world has ever seen. HMV goes bust off the back of this new super-retailer-that-doesn-feel-like-PC-World-or-Primark and eventually Urban Outfitters buy the rights to the brand, re branding as His Masters Outfitters and re-opening 50 stores as purely entertainment shops.

ELON MUSK

Despite water being found on mars, Space X still has a long way to go to being active, let alone profitable. Having realised that half of the worlds biggest music stars live in Los Angeles, and it’s their back yards that The Boring Company wants to plough under/through, Musk see’s the purchase of part of UMG as a necessary evil. In a Tidal-esque PR stunt to green light his big tunnel, Musk holds a press conference with Ariana, Taylor Swift, U2, Lorde, PSY, Sting, Duffy and most importantly Jimmy Iovine who he’s brought in to head up his new division, Musk Music. Jimmy proclaims that it’s the artists that matter and this is a game changing moment for the entertainment industry. A changeme.org petition is soon started by Tim Cook suggesting that Iovine be the first Mars traveller and every person in the independent sector signs it. Apple offer to pay for the whole exercise too, albeit with the royalties that it would normally use to pay the independent music sector. Funnily enough, no-one from indie community argues. C-ya Jim.

TIDAL

LOL